Wanna Bet

Yes, it is the biggest sporting event, even bigger than the Olympics for us, but are you a gambler, an investor. If so, put your money where your mouth is

The Iowa Electronic Markets are real-money futures markets in which contract payoffs depend on economic and political events such as elections. These markets are operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business as part of our research and teaching mission.

Yes, that’s right, a futures market for trading on the outcome of the election, or even on economic indicators. The maximum “investment” is $500, with most investing less than 10% of that amount.

The key to this is not really the investment aspect, but using futures to measure expectations. In this instance, it is expectation of who will win the popular vote, and if you require money—no matter how small—then you have people making more honest predictions.

People play Clear Politics all day, but when you ask them to speak with their money, they are more likely to tell the truth, and the truth on this exchange is that they still expect Kerry to have plenty of time for windsailing, but... Believe otherwise? Agree? You could make some money, if you think you know a sure thing. Open an account.

posted at 08:16:23 on 10/01/04 by clearpolitics - Category: General - [Permalink]

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